UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH BLOGS

The Office of Undergraduate Research sponsors a number of grant programs, including the Circumnavigator Club Foundation’s Around-the-World Study Grant and the Undergraduate Research Grant. Some of the students on these grants end up traveling and having a variety of amazing experiences. We wanted to give some of them the opportunity to share these experiences with the broader public. It is our hope that this opportunity to blog will deepen the experiences for these students by giving them a forum for reflection; we also hope these blogs can help open the eyes of others to those reflections/experiences as well. Through these blogs, perhaps we all can enjoy the ride as much as they will.

Super hero help getting started in research!

A few years ago, I created a series of workshops designed to help students unfamiliar with the research process to learn how to get started.  The workshops were a “big” success – we had a couple dozen students.  However, it made me aware of how many weren’t there, including those who wanted to attend but had a conflict.  So I went to my boss, and I told him that I wanted to make a comic web series about how students could get started in research.  After making sure that I didn’t have a fever, he told me I could pursue it.  I worked with some other units to secure some funding from the Arthur Vining Davis Foundations, and I got started writing scripts.  I began to collaborate with the incomparable Dee Lee at NUAMPS, and we spent the summer shooting and editing.

The final series is called “The Adventures of Grant Man!”  It follows three students in different fields as they try to develop projects for funding for our Summer URG program.  It goes through a lot of the core problems students experience, like being nervous to reach out to professors, figuring how to develop an idea, and how to write a grant proposal.  We think it provides a ton of useful information that can make the process of getting started less daunting and, dare I say, more fun!

Now, there have been rumors over the years that I am, in fact, Grant Man, and while the comparisons are certainly flattering (who doesn’t want to be compared to a super hero?), I clearly am just a guy in a tie trying to help students through the day.  We have been seeking our Grant Man’s true identity for years, but he is a mysterious lad.  Perhaps you can figure it out?

I’m Home.

Hi everyone and sorry for the long period of silence. I arrived back in the U.S. last Sunday and have had a really busy 10 days moving apartments, going to a wedding, and quickly pulling together a research grant application to return to my Brazil case study (cross your fingers for me!). The first day back was a really difficult jolt back to real life, but now I’m adjusted and kind of feel like the trip was a dream. I wrote a blog-post on the plane that I debated whether or not to post because it isn’t as professional as my others, but I think it offers a good glimpse of how I grew from the trip personally. Here it is:
By the time you’re reading this I’ll have arrived back to NU, finally done laundry, and had dinner at Mt. Everest (the best restaurant in Evanston if I must choose one). I’ll be an official circumnavigator! Currently I’m on the plane between Tokyo and Chicago. I just spent 10 days in the Philippines and had really incredible experiences speaking with scientists, farmers, Greenpeace anti-GMO activists, and regulators. I’ve been slow to come out with blog posts because I try to put a lot of time and thought into them – If I’m going to spew things about GMOs on the internet, I at least want to make sure I can support my claims with data or my experiences. I’ve created a placeholder Philippines post, so check back later this week once I’ve had time to think through my time there and organize a post.
In addition to the blog, I’ve also kept a personal handwritten journal that’s mostly just a day-by-day log of the people I meet and everyday (mostly non-research) experiences I have. It’s not very polished and is entirely to have a personal record of the trip, but I thought I’d share part of my final entry. On the blog I’ve focused a lot on the research, but hopefully you can see that this trip has been about a lot more than just GMOs. Please excuse that it’s not as polished as some of the other posts. Without further ado…
I haven’t been very excited to get home. I think this trip has brought out the very best version of myself – flexible, outgoing, intellectually engaged – that sometimes gets lost when I get too stressed or comfortable with a routine. I’ve grown so much over the past few months and know I will take certain lessons with me for the rest of my life.
Solo travel has made me more independent, which makes me more confident about my ability to tackle any situation, or at least “fake it till I make it”.
It’s forced me to confidently stand by my work and think on my feet in professional situations.
The trip has taught me to gracefully admit to not knowing what someone is talking about (which happened quite often when I visited biotech labs).
I feel much more likely to pursue an advanced degree in the natural sciences because I’ve seen the social impact that a biologist can have (and how good biologists can make it a positive impact).
It’s forced me to reflect on my role as a privileged white American traveler and how other people around the world see me (and hopefully be more sensitive to not fulfilling the worst of stereotypes).
After countless catcalls, not-so-subtle sexual advances, and warnings to “be careful” (which male white travelers don’t receive), I’ve become more conscious of how many of my daily experiences are shaped by the fact that I’m a woman. Sure we claim gender equality in the U.S., but I don’t think many men understand the feeling of constant hyperawareness of their surroundings that most women have to maintain when alone.
Most of all I’ve become much more comfortable with being out of my element, and am actually quite nervous about transitioning into the stress of NU academics and repetitiveness of routine. Three months ago I was absolutely terrified of the trip because of how huge and daunting it seemed. Now I’ve realized that the world is a pretty awesome place, and despite what the media and a certain U.S. presidential candidate will have you think, almost every person from every background, and every country is genuinely good at heart. And that’s the beauty of it – when you get to know amazing people, you realize that there are countless more amazing people out there to meet.
Very few individuals have the opportunity to travel around the world, particularly at age 21. Should it have to take such an adventure to become a better version of myself? I’m not sure. But so long as I had the opportunity, I’m grateful for every minute of it. Thank you to the Circumnavigators Club, the Office of Undergraduate Research, and WCAS for making this trip possible, and thank you to the incredible people I met along the way for making it so special

Congestion

For this post I have decided to spend time talking about everyone’s favorite part of traveling, traffic!

Congestion is never fun. Planners and engineers work constantly to try to mitigate it. Interestingly, supporters of light rail advocate for rail as a means to reduce road congestion. How does that work? Well it all relies on mode shift. Assume we have a constant number of people traveling through a particular corridor, let’s say 100 people. All 100 of these people are driving separately in their own car. If we add a train and 30 of those people now ride the train together instead of driving, then we have decreased the number of cars on the road.

Of course the above scenario does not account for changes in the total number of people. Also, the addition of the rail line more likely than not takes away space from the road that used to be another lane. We could easily have a situation where congestion doesn’t get better, but in fact gets worse. However, the claim light rail advocates state is that congestion will go down.

Let’s see if that’s the case.

There are a couple of ways we can look at congestion. First, we will take a look at the Texas A&M Urban Mobility Scorecard. Every year, this research group puts out a report card on the nation’s congestion. There are national levels and then the scorecard looks at major urban areas.

One measure of congestion is the Travel Time Index (TTI). This takes the the travel time during peak flow (time when most congested) divided by the travel time at free flow speeds (no congestion). Thus a TTI of 1.2 means that a 10 min trip takes 12 min during peak hours.

Below is the TTI for Dallas and LA over time.
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In both of these cities the TTI has gone up (as it has across the country). This matches the overarching narrative that congestion is in fact getting worse in the US.

But these measures look at car travel, let’s focus on how light rail is doing and how it compares with the car.

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These graphs show the mean travel time to work by mode. These data come from the American Community Survey 1-Year estimates. They were calculated using aggregate travel time by mode divided by the number of commuters by mode. The grey bar for transit includes all transit modes (light rail and bus). We see that the travel time to work by transit is nearly double that of car. This is pretty consistent with national numbers. What is particularly interesting is that Dallas saw a noticeable increase in travel time for transit between 2010 and 2011. This increase coincided with an increase in direct route miles. This is surprising because one would suspect that an increase in the amount of light rail service would decrease the travel time, not increase.

Why is that? Well a possible explanation is that the system is now crowded with more trains and people, thus causing congestion. Another idea is that the new extension is bringing on new riders who switched from some other mode (although this idea is harder to explain since that would mean people switched to a slower mode of travel). And possibly, since these number include bus travel as well, there could have been changes in bus service which increased travel time.

While looking at only two cities is not nearly a big enough sample, it does appear that at least for Dallas and Los Angeles, their light rail is not helping with congestion. And for Dallas, light rail may even be making it worse.

Dramaturgy, Colored Bodies, Cultural Hybridity, and Katherine Profeta

Thursday, August 18 and Friday, August 19 – “Dramaturgy in Motion” by Katherine Profeta

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On Friday, I went for a run and then to Metropolis Coffee Company in Edgewater (they have Hoosier Mama quiche so…) before having a wonderful flat tire journey with Meg (but now I know how to change a tire!). On Saturday I went to Cafe Jumping Bean (a little bit more of a restaurant than a cafe, and Obama’s been there so you know it’s worth it) and then went to La Catrina Cafe (really great tea and a nice atmosphere).

Katherine Profeta was Ralph Lemon’s dramaturg, and this book is about her experiences with him and also about dramaturgy and dance in general. First and foremost, it was awesome to get to read about those experiences from her point of view.

She starts by going through a history of dramaturgy, which is really important if you’re like me and are completely ignorant of dramaturgy and its origins. Her five chapters work through five “potential registers of the dance dramaturg’s engagement in the working process”–text and language, research, the dramaturg as the “advocate for the audience,” the art of attending to the movement, and interculturalism in performance (22-23).

One thing that Profeta is keenly aware of, which I appreciate, is her experience as a white woman and how that affects her dramaturgy. She acknowledges that she can’t separate her experiences from the way she looks at Lemon’s work, and that that is potentially problematic because of the nature and content of Lemon’s work. At one point, she notes how transferring the actions of a white body onto a collection of mostly black bodies completely alters their nature, and how a white body is considered “neutral” but a black body will always have other underlying meaning attached to it.

Profeta’s last chapter is all about interculturalism in performance, which is a really intriguing notion. Essentially, Lemon wanted to incorporate elements of other cultures into his dances, and part of Profeta’s job as dramaturg was helping him to figure out how to do that in a way that was not appropriative, but also not imitative. They had to walk a line of incorporating elements that allowed for the original culture to exist without being erased, but not so many elements that it turned into a mythological version of that culture. These notions, I think, are much more widely applicable than just in dance–they apply to all forms of art, and I think some even reach into our daily lives.

Gestures, Long Dances, and Doris Humphrey

Wednesday, August 17 – “The Art of Making Dances” by Doris Humphrey

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I actually read this one at Eva’s Cafe on Wednesday (it’s a super quick read), so no new coffee shops for this post.

This book is pretty much a staple in any choreography class; Humphrey was one of the (if not the) first to write a book on how to choreograph. Some of her notions are, naturally, suspect, but it’s a useful handbook anyway.

One thing that was really interesting (that I actually hadn’t read before) was Humphrey’s notion of four types of gestures: social, functional, ritual, and emotional. As someone who’s very interested by gesturally-focused pieces (rather than big sweeping full body movements), reading about these different gestural ideas gave me a new way of thinking about creating dances (which is always good!).

The most well-known part of this book (and where the title of this blog originates) is her checklist for dances, which is as follows:
Symmetry is lifeless
Two-dimensional design is lifeless
The eye is faster than the ear
Movement looks slower and weaker on the stage
All dances are too long
A good ending is forty per cent of the dance
Monotony is fatal; look for contrasts
Don’t be a slave to, or a mutilator of, the music
Listen to qualified advice; don’t be arrogant
Don’t intellectualize; motivate movement
Don’t leave the ending to the end

While some of these can generally be universally agreed upon (listen to advice, don’t leave the ending to the end, etc.), there are others that even I would contest (I think symmetry can be useful in some instances; I think that intellectualizing can be useful if that serves your purpose, etc). But there’s honestly not a whole lot for me to react to in this book, so I’ll leave it at that.

Geography, Tree, Charley Patton, and Ralph Lemon

Saturday, August 13 to Wednesday, August 17 – “Geography,” “Tree,” and “Come Home Charley Patton” by Ralph Lemon

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On Saturday, I spent the morning at Asado Coffee Company (a small place, but really good coffee) and the afternoon at Emerald City (bigger and cozier, but a little bit crowded so not great for working if you need quiet). On Monday, I went for a run in the morning and then read at Deering for the rest of the day. On Tuesday, I spent the morning at Heritage Outpost (one of my favorites, very minimal and clean-cut) and the afternoon at Kitchen Sink (yummy bagels, otherwise nothing special but definitely not bad). On Wednesday, I went to Elaine’s Coffee Call in the morning (smallish and attached to a hotel) and Eva’s Cafe in the afternoon (another favorite, really big and cozy).

These three books are a trilogy by Ralph Lemon, which is why they’re lumped into one post. They are each about a different piece of his, and consist of letters and journal entries and anecdotes from the time he was creating the piece.

“Geography” was the quickest read and the least actual reading (it involved a lot of pictures and things like that). One recurring theme in all of these books that started in “Geography” was the notion of what it’s like to be black in America versus what it’s like to be black in Africa. He also repeatedly deals with the issue of what it means to be a black dance artist, as well as the notion of text in dance (and of having a script for a dance performance). My favorite part of “Geography,” however, is a drawing of a sink that says, “When I was puking in this sink I was in the same position that I pray in.”

“Tree” is possibly the most aesthetically beautiful book I’ve ever owned. It’s still a great deal about race, but in “Tree” Lemon travels to India a few times and tells anecdotes of his time there. One of the most striking things to me was the question of what it means to be black in India–some South Indians are dark enough that they could be mistaken for being black, but for some reason Lemon is consistently set apart. This is something I feel, too, when I’m in India–I’m not sure if it’s because of the way I dress or talk or act, but I definitely feel very “other” despite my skin tone fitting in, and I sense that I am “other” in the minds of the people around me.

In “Come Home Charley Patton,” Lemon travels through racially significant locations in the southern United States. This was probably my favorite of the three books; it involved a bit more of a storyline than the other two and it was easier to follow, which may be part of it. The most exciting part of this book, for me (although this was in the others) was Darrell Jones. Darrell came to Northwestern to choreograph a piece that I was in for Danceworks in 2015, and reading about him in this book (and seeing pictures of him) was really incredible–it just highlighted how insular the dance world really is. I wish I had known when Darrell came, because I would have loved to ask him about his experiences working with Lemon.

Horizontals, The Nuremberg Trials, Accidental Feminism, and Liz Lerman

Friday, August 12 – “Hiking the Horizontal” by Liz Lerman

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I spent Friday morning dealing with the always-lovely SOFO, and then I worked out before treating myself to a milkshake and laying on my absurdly soft carpet to read “Hiking the Horizontal.” I read it this past quarter for an independent study, but it never hurts to re-read.

The notion behind the title may be my favorite part of this book. Lerman starts her introduction by talking about how there’s often this conception of art as existing on a vertical spectrum–“low art” at the bottom, and “high art” at the top. The goal seems to be to reach the top, and the art at the top is supposed to be inherently more valuable than the art at the bottom. Lerman, however, argues that we should think about art as existing on a horizontal spectrum–no art is ranked higher than any other art, but they’re just different types of art that all have the same value. We can even turn the line into a circle, and explore all the different parts of it.

Lerman also talks about being an accidental feminist, or her dances having “quiet feminism” (12). She talks about how she did not set out to create a feminist work, but she is proud of the fact that people read that in her work–that she created a work that “made it okay for dance to be sexy as well as about ideas” (12). In contrast with some of the former choreographers who seemed to be adamantly against being called feminists, this was a refreshing change.

I will leave you with one last, really long quote.
A really intriguing thing that Liz Lerman writes about is when she was commissioned to create a piece about the Nuremberg trials. She writes a letter to the woman who commissioned her and asks why she thinks a dance about the Nuremberg trials will be useful, to which the woman replies:
“These are my hopes: that a dance would reach people who seldom think about mass atrocities–students, lawyers–with the chance to be drawn in emotionally and intellectually, with the pacing that can allow people to absorb or begin to absorb the incomprehensible scales of atrocity, the limits of legal responses but also the dignity in the effort to frame and respond to atrocities through law. For those who think about these matters often . . . the chance to imagine images and voices about these things, and to have a shared experience with others who seldom attend these issues, would be a gift. The central problematics rather than more information would be a valuable focus. And rather than the typical academic discussion that implies the capacity of logic, empiricism, and argument to contain, resolve or manage an issue, the dance might give people experience dwelling with the problematics” (Lerman 88).

Return

I returned from Asia about a week ago, and have had some time to reflect on my experiences in Singapore. It is a place and a time I will miss, and although I am incredibly grateful and lucky to have received funding allowing me to complete this project, I wish I could have stayed longer. The final few days came up quickly, and, as I think I mentioned in my last post, I would have liked to have had more time there, for research purposes and otherwise. But, alas, all good things must come to an end!

In my final few days, I did get a chance to catch the National Day celebrations, which commemorate Singapore’s independence in 1965. The celebrations are pretty elaborate, and there are street decorations for weeks prior, a televised celebration that occurs the night of August 9 in the National Stadium (I believe tickets to attend the actual celebration are auctioned off lottery style), a huge national day parade with fireworks and air shows, etc. I think what struck me most about National Day, though, was how much it permeated daily life – for example, for the week before and after National Day, malls across the city seemingly played only National Day music… “We are Singapore, Singaporeans,” I was reminded, every time I stopped for lunch. The day before National Day is when most schools have National Day celebrations, and I got to go to the high school my professor used to teach at to get a sense of what National Day is all about. It was pretty awesome to be in a high school environment and feel the excitement and buzz in the air, and also interesting to hear how committed everyone seems to the “national narrative,” per se, upheld on National Day and beyond. It would be too long to go into those reflections now, but if you’re interested, I’m happy and willing to discuss. Here’s a video of the assembly-style celebrations of National Day at the Anglo Chinese School (if you play with audio, you can hear one of the National Day songs):

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My final days in Singapore were spent in the library, finishing up reviewing the Malaya Tribune somewhat frantically, crossing my t’s and dotting my i’s. I got to say goodbye to a new friend, the one who showed me around after reading my blog, as well:

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It would probably be amiss not to mention that I traveled to Beijing to visit my roommate after my research. When in Asia, right? I knew there wouldn’t be another time in my life, or at least for a long time, where I would have a friend to show me around Beijing that spoke Chinese and could navigate anything from the shopping district to the hutongs. I was struck by comparisons and impressions of Singapore…Singaporeans warned me of traveling to Beijing that it would be dirty and crime ridden (which it was not), and Beijingers commented on Singapore’s relative cleanliness and contrived nature (which, to a degree, it is). In Beijing, I saw what I couldn’t in Singapore, as far as “old Beijing” goes. I also saw a little more authenticity than Singapore’s “Chinatown,” which functions more like Disneyland. I loved being in Beijing, and 5 days was the perfect amount of time to finish off my time abroad being just a tourist rather than a researcher. Here’s some highlights:

Camping at the Great Wall to see the sunrise:

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Exploring Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City:

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Checking out a few hutongs:

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While I thoroughly enjoyed my time in Beijing, that vacation similarly had to come to an end and I returned to the U.S. last week. The final week or so of my URG period will be spent reviewing the photographs I took of the Malaya Tribune and noting them in more detail so that analysis will be possible. This will likely be a task that will continue throughout the year as I work on my honors thesis.

Reflecting on my time in Singapore makes me proud that I feel I did the most with the amount of time that I had there. I hit the archives as often as I could and remain sane, met many inspiring, devoted individuals who reminded me to breathe and see Singapore when possible, and proved to myself that I can travel and plan my travels alone and be effective in doing so, a previous area of self-doubt. I also learned that research is something I could see myself doing in the future, but probably not the immediate future, and that I want to go abroad again, possibly to Southeast Asia, after graduation. I am incredibly grateful that I have been given the chance to conduct independent research, and learn not only about my project, but also about what it is like to be a researcher. I’m sure this learning will continue throughout the year, where I can’t wait to continue the act of research, even if in Evanston rather than Singapore.

Just Moms Try Electoral Politics

Sixty-five people gathered at the start time for the Moms’ (Just Moms STL) August meeting, this time in a union hall. At least ten more straggled in, as confused newcomers navigated construction on the road outside. Billed as a candidate’s forum instead of the normal monthly updates, the meeting was in some ways a test of the Moms’ effectiveness in putting political pressure on their elected officials to clean up the landfill.

Five minutes before the candidate forum began.

Five minutes before the candidate forum began.

Ten candidates spoke, many of them running for county council positions, to be on a council that has already passed multiple resolutions in favor of removing the waste over the last forty years. Two candidates for the United States House, Bill Otto (D) and Steve Bailey (R) appeared, but neither of the incumbents for the region were there. The gubernatorial candidates along with Ann Wagner (R) of Congress pledged to come to a different meeting in a few weeks, after the Missouri State Fair. The hall could have sat many more people, and the vacant seats around seemed a stark reminder of the enormous uphill battle that the activists face in pushing for change.

The Moms and their supporters, however, made a big impression on me as I sat in the audience. Before the candidates were given the opportunity to speak, two people, one Mom and one thirteen-year-old girl, spoke about their personal experiences. Meghan Beckerman, mother of a boy who has lost all of his hair and who has had continual health issues, testified that she is “in a constant state of anxiety,” which is alone a risk to health. “Our outdoor barbecues literally smell like dead meat mixed with rotten eggs, and I promise it is not my cooking,” she said as she got choked up about the fact that she can never have company because her family doesn’t feel safe visiting. Izzy Richmond, who moved to Maryland Heights as a small child in 2010, developed asthma within months of the fire starting. After her mother was diagnosed with thyroid cancer, the Richmond family moved away, and Izzy’s asthma disappeared. Izzy spoke on the verge of tears, but bravely made it through her speech and received much applause from the audience.

Meghan Beckerman speaks as Karen Nickels, co-founder of Just Moms STL, holds up photos of Beckerman's son.

Meghan Beckerman speaks as Karen Nickels, co-founder of Just Moms STL, holds up photos of Beckerman’s son.

Each candidate was asked if they supported a buy-out of the homes within a one-mile radius of the landfill and if they supported the transfer of jurisdiction from the EPA to the Army Corps of Engineers. With very little variation, all ten candidates answered yes to both. All were very courteous to the Moms and did not waste their efforts by talking about other issues.

Their answers were very encouraging, according to Kay Drey, a life-long environmental activist who has played a role in establishing many of the state’s environmental organizations. It was very different from a recent EPA-led meeting, where the hostility the region feels towards their environmental stewards was on display. Drey laughed as she related that one frustrated community member made the analogy to the representatives that just because they didn’t properly test for the components of the waste in the landfill didn’t mean they weren’t there, just as because one couldn’t see Kay Drey’s pink underwear didn’t mean she wasn’t wearing it. This hostility was fresh on the mind of the local candidates, several of whom said that the jurisdiction needed to be transferred to the ACE for trust reasons alone.

Why do people of the region distrust the EPA so much? In part it is because the slow wheels of bureaucracy don’t move with the urgency that many people feel when they find their families at risk for environmental harm. Other issues—such as the EPA informing the NRC in 2,000 that it would leave the waste in place, eight years before its official record of decision—make residents doubt how seriously the EPA is taking their health and well-being. Whether or not the residents are correct, their feelings were overt and reflected in the words of the ten candidates for whom the landfill is an important enough issue to give up an evening to speak about it.

America’s Next Top Regression Model

A huge part of any research comes down to modeling. You explore a bunch of variables and you try to see which ones are important predictors to the outcome you care about. In transportation, modeling is extremely important for planners and leaders who are the decision makers for transportation infrastructure. If you want to build a new light rail in your city, you have to be able to show that you can get ridership out of it.

I have spent the last week looking at how to build a model to predict ridership levels. Why is ridership so important? Well, the majority of positive outcomes from public transit are contingent on high ridership and use. You cannot get economic development and congestion relief from a new rail service if no one rides it. And while no transit organization makes a profit from fares, high fare revenue helps keep a transit system functioning without having to rely completely on government subsidies. Ridership, while not the most detailed and fair metric, is often used as a quick and easy indicator of a successful system.

What variables drive ridership? Arguably, everything. While constructing a model, it is worth while to consider as many variables as possible to begin with, and then throw out ones that do not appear to have statistical significance.

Off the bat, we could say some obvious predictors of ridership are the route miles (DRM), revenue vehicle miles (RVM) and service area. These are characteristics of the physical system. But demographics of the host city also impact ridership. Such variables are population, unemployment, travel time to work and the travel time index (TTI). The last two are measures of the congestion in the city. The travel time index is calculated by taking the time it takes to make a trip during peak hours dividing by the time it takes to make the same trip at free-flow speeds (i.e. no traffic). For example, an index of 1.20 means that a 10 min trip takes 12 min during the rush hour traffic. While that may not seem bad at first, consider that the national average travel time to work is 25.7 min (American Community Survey 2014 Estimate). So even a TTI of 1.20 can be significant.

To begin developing a working model, I tested four variables: service population, unemployment, travel time to work and the travel time index. I predicted that service population would be the dominating variable.

After running a multivariate regression in Excel, I found that unemployment, travel time to work and TTI all had p-values greater than 0.05. In standard practice, this suggests that these variables are not significant to the model. Only service population had a coefficient statistically different from zero, with a p-value of 0.013308. Keeping all the variables in the model, I used this regression to make predictions for 2014 ridership. I compared the model’s predictions with the actual ridership in a scatter plot, with the predicted values on the y-axis and the actual on the x-axis. If the model is accurate, the resulting plot should be a straight line with a 45° angle.

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Above is the plot from the first regression model. Not a terrible fit, but this could be a lot better.

After some thought, I decided to throw out all the variables except for service population. I added DRM, RVM and service area to see what happened.

The Excel regression showed that three of the variables were statistically significant to the model. DRM was the only one with a p-value greater than 0.05. However, keeping the DRM coefficient, I again used the model to graph the predicted ridership against the actual ridership. The results are shown in the plot below.

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Here we see a much tighter fit of the data. The R² value is high at 0.93 and the slope is 0.945 (almost 1 which would give a 45° slope!). The question becomes if it is a good idea to still keep DRM in the model or reject it because of its p-value. I decided to keep it. When building a regression model, one cannot lose sight of what variables mean and their nature. RVM, as I discussed in my last post, is arguably not a good independent variable because it can easily be adjusted as a response to ridership. In other words, the direction of causality could be reverse. Since DRM is a measure of the physical tracks built, it is safer to assume that ridership responds to changes in DRM. Because of this, I have kept DRM in the model.

Going forward, I will want to work on developing this model and seeing how it works against individual cities over a time span and see what can be learned from what the model predicts versus what actually happened with light rail ridership.